Almost $5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today on Deribit, creating fresh uncertainty for a crypto market already showing signs of weakness.
The expiry, scheduled for November 14 at 8:00 UTC, could influence short-term price moves for BTC and ETH as traders position around key strike levels.
This week’s expiry is slightly smaller than last week’s $5.4 billion event, but the stakes are higher due to the market downturn. Analysts say traders should watch max pain levels and option positioning, which often shape price action near expiration.
Bitcoin Market Shows Cautious Optimism
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 again this week, prompting a more cautious stance from traders. Deribit data shows the max pain level for BTC at $105,000, the price at which the most options holders would take losses.
The put-to-call ratio (PCR) sits at 0.63, meaning fewer puts are being traded compared to calls. This suggests traders are leaning toward a bullish outlook, even as Bitcoin trades lower. BTC was last seen at $99,092, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.
Open interest is concentrated around:
- $95,000 and $100,000 puts
- $108,000 and $111,000 calls
Total open interest stands at 40,846 contracts, with calls (25,121) outnumbering puts (15,725). The notional value of BTC options exceeds $4.04 billion.
Ethereum Traders Show Similar Confidence
Ethereum trades near $3,224, with max pain around $3,500. ETH options hold more than $730 million in notional value.
Ethereum’s PCR is 0.64, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Traders purchased more than 142,000 call options, compared to about 90,000 puts, showing a 1.5x bias toward upside bets. Total open interest is 232,852 contracts.
Macro Tension Adds to Volatility
This week’s options expiry comes as broader macro uncertainty rattles markets. Analysts at Greeks.live point to several catalysts:
- The recent end of the record 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which delayed key economic data
- The absence of the latest CPI report, increasing uncertainty for economists
- Rising geopolitical tensions
- The growing impact of the AI boom on market behavior
They also note rising open interest, higher trading volume, and more out-of-the-money positions. Implied volatility is increasing across major maturities, showing wider disagreement among traders about what happens next.
Analysts say these conditions may set the stage for a sharp move—up or down—as traders unwind positions after the expiry.
Volatility Ahead
With billions in contracts settling today, markets could see sudden price swings. But analysts warn that volatility often cools after expiration as positions reset and traders adjust to the new environment.
