Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin has already hit its bottom and is still on track to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. The BitMEX co-founder shared his outlook on the Milk Road podcast, calling the recent dip to $80,600 a normal move caused by temporary liquidity pressure.
Hayes said Bitcoin fell from $125,000 to $80,000 after ETF-related trades reversed and the U.S. Treasury rebuilt its cash balance. Between July and November, the Treasury raised about $1 trillion, which removed liquidity from financial markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening also drained money from the system.
He argued that many investors misunderstood the strong ETF inflows earlier this year. According to Bloomberg data, major holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF include Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir.
Hayes said these firms were not buying Bitcoin for long-term exposure but were running basis trades. They bought the ETF while shorting Bitcoin futures. When funding rates collapsed in October, they exited these trades by selling the ETF and buying back futures, which caused selling pressure.
Hayes said this created a false impression that institutions had lost interest in Bitcoin. He explained that retail traders reacted to the wrong signal without understanding the nature of the flows.
However, Hayes believes the liquidity environment is now improving. The Treasury General Account has risen to about $900 billion, close to its target, and the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening. Hayes said the central bank’s balance sheet will now stay steady, which means market liquidity has likely bottomed.
He also expects bank lending to become a major driver of credit creation in 2026. JP Morgan has already discussed plans for $1.5 trillion in industrial lending. Hayes believes increasing liquidity will support higher prices for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Because of these factors, he remains confident that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by December 31.
