Bitcoin could be close to a market bottom, at least when measured against gold, according to analysis from Mercado Bitcoin.
Historically, bitcoin bear markets last 12–13 months. If the pattern holds in dollars, the current downturn could continue until late 2026. However, when priced in gold, the potential bottom may have arrived as early as February, with a recovery possibly starting in March.
Global uncertainty and rising tensions—especially with China and Iran—have pushed capital into gold, weakening bitcoin relative to bullion. Gold has risen over 80% in the past year to $5,280. Meanwhile, around $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs since November.
Despite this, large investors, or “whales,” are seeing the sell-off as a buying opportunity. Firms like Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments in Abu Dhabi added exposure to bitcoin ETFs in mid-February.
Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, advises investors to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy, building positions gradually amid market fear rather than trying to time the exact bottom.
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” Szuster said. “We may be in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
